Welcome to Probability Theory! For course info and policies, please see the syllabus. For grades, log into Moodle. If you need help, ask a question on the Q & A Forum or contact Prof. Wright.

**Prof. Wright's office hours in RMS 405:** Mon. 8:00–8:55 & 2:15–3:15, Wed. 2:30–3:30, Thurs 9:30–10:30, Fri. 10:30–11:30, whenever the door is open, or by appointment

**Help sessions:** ~~Wednesdays 7–8pm in RNS 204~~ *Sorry, no help session this week! Help sessions resume May 2.*

Jump to today

Friday

February 9

February 9

Introduction

What is probability?

What is probability?

Do the following before next class:

- Complete the Syllabus Quiz and the Help Session Scheduling Poll.
- Read §1.1 and §1.2 (at least through page 10) and answer the questions on the Reading Guide (also on the back of your worksheet from class). Bring the Reading Guide with you to the next class.
- Begin Homework 1.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §1.3 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 1 (due Wednesday at 4pm in the homework mailbox).

Do the following before next class:

- Read this article by Carol Dweck and answer the questions on the Reading Guide. Also make a conjecture about the cookie problem on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 2 (due 4pm Monday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §1.4 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 2 (due 4pm Monday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read (or re-read) Section 1.4.3, then read §1.5. Answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 3 (due 4pm Friday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §1.6 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 3 (due 4pm Friday).
- If possible, bring a laptop with R and RStudio to class on Friday. You can download R here and download RStudio here.

Do the following before next class:

- Begin Homework 4 (due 4pm Wednesday).
- There is no reading assignment for Monday, but this would be a good time to review Chapter 1.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.1 and §2.2, and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 4 (due 4pm Wednesday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.3 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 5. (Note that this homework is not due until Wednesday, March 7, but it is a bit longer than usual.)

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.4 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Work on Homework 5 (due 4pm Wednesday).

Monday

March 5

March 5

Binomial distribution

Do the following before next class:

- Finish Homework 5 (due 4pm Wednesday).
- There is no reading assignment for Wednesday, but this would be an excellent time to review §2.1–2.4.

Study for Exam 1.

Friday

March 9

March 9

**Exam 1**

- This exam will cover Sections 1.1 through 1.5 and 2.1 through 2.3.
- Calculators will be permitted, but probably not very helpful, and certainly not necessary.
- Books, notes, and internet-capable devices will not be permitted during the exam.
- A review page, with suggested problems, is available here.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.5 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 6 (due 4pm Wednesday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.6.1 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 6.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.6.2 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 7 (due 4pm Monday).

Do the following before next class:

- Reading §2.7 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 7.

Do the following before next class:

- Re-read §2.7. This section should make more sense now than the first time you read it. There is no reading guide for Wednesday.
- Begin Homework 8.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §2.8 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 8.
- If possible, bring a computer with R and RStudio to class on Friday.

Have a great spring break! No class March 26 – April 2.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §3.1 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 9.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §3.2 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 9.

Friday

April 6

April 6

Expected values and moment generating functions of continuous distributions

Homework 9

due today

due today

Do the following before next class:

- Read §3.3 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 10.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §3.4.1 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 10.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §3.4.2 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 11.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §3.7 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Work on Homework 11.

Do the following before next class:

- Re-read §3.7, focusing on Examples 3.39–3.41.
- Finish Homework 11.

Wednesday

April 18

April 18

Transformation of random variables and review problems

Take-home exam problems distributed

Take-home exam problems distributed

Homework 11

due today

due today

Complete the take-home exam problems before next class.

Friday

April 20

April 20

**Exam 2**

- This exam will cover Sections 2.1 through 2.7 and 3.1 through 3.4.
- Calculators will be permitted, but probably not very helpful, and certainly not necessary.
- Books, notes, and internet-capable devices will not be permitted during the exam.
- Click here for more information and suggested review problems.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.1 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 12 (due 4pm Wednesday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.2 and answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Finish Homework 12 (due 4pm Wednesday).

*Note: No help session on Wednesday evening this week.*

Do the following before next class:

- Read from the beginning of §4.3 up to the §4.3.1 heading (pages 264–268 in the Second Edition of the text). Answer the questions on the Reading Guide.
- Begin Homework 13 (due 4pm Monday).

Friday

April 27

April 27

Linear combinations of random variables

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.3.1 and §4.3.2.
- Finish Homework 13 (due 4pm Monday).

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.4...
- Begin Homework 14.

Wednesday

May 2

May 2

Conditional distributions and expectation

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.5...
- Finish Homework 14.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.5...
- Begin Homework 15.

Monday

May 7

May 7

Limit theorems

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.6...
- Finish Homework 15.

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.6...
- Begin Homework 16.

Friday

May 11

May 11

Transformations of random variables

Bivariate transformation theorem

Bivariate transformation theorem

Do the following before next class:

- Read §4.9...
- Work on Homework 16.

Monday

May 14

May 14

Order statistics

Do the following before next class:

- Finish Homework 16.

Complete the take-home portion of the final exam.

Saturday

May 19

May 19

**Final Exam, 9–11am**

- This exam will be cumulative, with emphasis on Chapter 4.
- The exam will consist of an in-class portion and a short take-home portion.
- The take-home portion will be distributed on May 16 and due at the final exam time on May 19. For this portion of the exam you may use your textbook, your notes, the course web site, a calculator,
*R*,*Mathematica*, and*Wolfram Alpha*, but not other people, web sites, books, etc. Remember the honor code! - For the in-class portion: books, notes, and internet-capable devices will not be permitted. Calculators will be permitted, but probably not very helpful, and certainly not necessary.
- Click here for more information and suggested review problems.
**More review problems:**transformations of random variables (solutions) and end of semester problems (solutions)- Lastly, make sure you are familiar with the St. Olaf final exam policies.